US appears to have ignored lessons from its post-Cold War unilateral, regime-change policies in Middle East
If the goal was to weaken regimes seen as threats to Israel’s security and diminish Russian influence, some progress was made in Iraq and Syria, while in Libya, Moscow’s influence seems to have grown. Allowing Israel more freedom in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and the West Bank may have temporarily improved its security but may not offer a lasting solution to its security challenges through regional dominance backed by the US.
Israel has long viewed nuclear-armed Iran as its primary security threat and has campaigned aggressively against Tehran’s nuclear program, despite the program being closely monitored and verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Israeli claims of Iran’s imminent nuclear capability lack evidence and have not been supported by the IAEA.
These claims influenced the US political landscape, leading President Donald Trump during his first term to reject the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the UN Security Council’s permanent members plus Germany. The deal imposed strict, humiliating limits and inspections on Iran’s nuclear activities.
In his second term, Trump pushed for a tougher agreement that would strip Iran of rights granted under the original deal. Negotiations occurred amid looming deadlines and threats from Trump, suggesting a mix of diplomatic theater and preparation for possible military strikes.
With Hamas and Hezbollah weakened and regime changes in Syria, Iran’s regional influence was diminished, emboldening Prime Minister Netanyahu to consider a direct military attack on Iran, potentially drawing the US into supporting Israel militarily.
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